Retreat Fake Out
No word has been so divisive in the history of battle, warfare, public policy, and governance than “retreat”. Meaning to move back, withdraw, or admit that your opponent is more powerful at the moment. Those who participate in battle as a lifestyle whether it be on a battlefield with weapons, a political battlefield of ideology, or a battlefield for consumer attention/money all have a considerable amount of pride in their skill and experience – to them retreat is just a sign of immanent defeat and personally not being good enough. However, retreating doesn’t always lead to an assured end and the United States of America is proof of this.
In July of 1776 the American colonists declared independence from the British Empire. By August of 1776 the Americans along with turncoat and leader of the Revolutionary Army, General Washington were pinned down by the British in New York along with 9,000 people, artillery, and supplies during the first major battle of the war in what appeared to be an assured defeat. The British army assumed they were in for a bitter siege but Washington decided to try and retreat. Under cover of darkness his men aided by fishermen from Massachusetts rounded up flat bottom boats and ferried all the people, supplies, and artillery out of New York and on to the Island of Manhattan leaving the campfire’s burning to fool the British. This retreat is considered one of the more fortunate in the history of warfare. By December of 1776 General Washington would cross the Delaware River and surprise Hessian soldiers taking them as prisoners and filling his army’s supply stocks. This would in-turn lead to the eventual Battle of Saratoga which provided the evidence France’s King needed to be persuaded to ally wit the United States of America and declare war on Britain. Ultimately this all lead to the American victory and the Treat of Paris in 1783.
Consider for a moment that your company has decided to create a new product and let’s also assume for this thought experiment that your company is a food company specializing in beverages and your new product is a pre-packaged frozen fried dinner – the first one you’ve attempted. Before launch you’ve done all of your research, taste tests, and market testing and you’ve launched the product in your key markets. Unfortunately your competition notices some negative chatter about your new product on social media and uses funds to spread these less than positive mentions as much as they can. It turns out some consumers think it tastes like cardboard and others dislike an ingredient being used due to a current health trend. The net result is a flopping product line, an angry customer base, and damage to your previously sterling brand.
In this instance you may want to stop production, recall the existing product, and publicly admit to your mistakes making it seem to your competitors like you’ve pulled out of the frozen food market completely and admitted defeat cutting short any long-term negative brand sentiment you may have been developing. Once you’ve done this you can proceed to retool the product line in secret until you’re ready to launch again possibly working to gain new allies to support the product line, improving the food manufacturing process, rebranding the product line, or even purchasing a competitor brand with a good public image to use for your product line. When you do relaunch, your competition might be surprised and caught off guard and you’ll be able to defend against the attack they used to stop your first launch.
Consider this, Apple worked to build a TV product for years starting with Macintosh TV in 1993 which flopped largely due to price ($2,100 at the time), The Apple Interactive TV Box which was never released and killed in 1995, Pippin a gaming and tv entertainment console launched in 1996 and discontinued in 1997, Front Row software starting in 2005, Apple TV launched in 2007 at $299, and finally Apple TV at a $99 price point in 2010 which elevated the hardware to a must own for Apple fans from something previously viewed as either a hobby or failed product. That’s a 17 year history of failure, retreating from a market, and re-entry until they finally got the product right, the project was once even killed by a returning Steve Jobs who wanted to focus Apple on fewer products.
Apple wasn’t alone in their pursuit of a thin boxed TV device their top competitors Google, Microsoft, and AOL all tried similar services in the past which all ultimately failed. Google TV was launched in 2010 and was discontinued in 2014, Microsoft purchased tech startup WebTV in 1997 later rebranded the company as MSN TV and discontinued the service in 2013, AOL launched AOL TV in 2000 and shut down the brand in 2002.
Pros vs. Cons
Pros: Retreating can be a powerful weapon allowing you to conserve finances, increase profits, and preserve your brand image. By killing TV products for several years and focusing on iTunes, iPods, and the iPhone Apple was able to rebuild their company from what some say was the verge of bankruptcy – then develop a good entry into the TV entertainment market.
Cons: Retreating means you’re calling everything you’ve done for the product / service a financial loss which will not be very popular with board members, shareholders, and executives. A Retreat Fake Out also requires you to continue investing in the product or service you pulled / discontinued put do so quietly. That means allocating internal resources to a failure, doubling the unpopularity of the idea and increasing the likelihood that if your plan fails you’ll not be employed much longer.